Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Study shows so-called cougars, sugar daddies more myth than reality

Study shows so-called cougars, sugar daddies more myth than reality [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 6-May-2013
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Contact: David Kelly
david.kelly@ucdenver.edu
303-315-6374
University of Colorado Denver

Those with older or younger spouses tend to have lower earnings, less education

DENVER (May 6, 2013) Despite the popular image of the rich older man or woman supporting an attractive younger spouse, a new study shows those married to younger or older mates have on average lower earnings, lower cognitive abilities, are less educated and less attractive than couples of similar ages.

"Hugh Hefner is an outlier," said Hani Mansour, Ph.D., an assistant professor of economics at the University of Colorado Denver who co-authored the study with Terra McKinnish, Ph.D., associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder. "Our results call into question the conventional wisdom regarding differently-aged couples."

The study, published online last week in the Review of Economics and Statistics, showed that those married to older or younger spouses scored negatively in key areas like education, occupational wages, appearance and cognitive skills.

The researchers did not give a range of how much older or younger a spouse had to be to see these effects. It simply found that the greater the age difference, the higher the negative indicators.

The economists examined U.S. Census Bureau data from 1960 through 2000 looking at age at first marriage, completed education, occupational wages, and earnings. They also used the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to measure cognitive skills and the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health) to gauge physical attractiveness.

Their findings largely reflect the different networks that lower or higher ability individuals belong to.

Those attending four-year colleges interact more with people of about the same age. After graduation, they and their peers often enter careers with upward mobility at a time when people tend to marry.

By contrast, those who attend community colleges or work in low-skilled jobs with little chance of advancement are more likely to interact with more widely diverse age groups, increasing their chances of marrying someone significantly younger or older, the study said.

"It really depends on who your social network is," Mansour said. "People with lower earning potential are in networks that are more age diverse."

The study also found that men married to younger or older spouses made less money than those married to women of a similar age.

In the 1980 Census, for example, men married to women eight or more years younger or older earned on average $3,495 less per year than men married to women no more than a year older or younger.

At the same time, women married to differently-aged spouses made more money than their mates but that was due to working more hours, not earning higher wages.

A battery of tests conducted in high school measured verbal, math and arithmetic reasoning skills. Those married to differently-aged spouses scored lower on the tests. Men with spouses at least eight years younger scored on average 8.4 points less than those who married women of a similar age. Women had less drastic drops in their scores.

Physical attractiveness was determined by interviewers conducting the Add Health survey. They rated their subjects on a scale of one to five with one being `very unattractive' and five being `very attractive.'

"Overall, the estimates indicate that individuals married to differently-aged spouses are less attractive than those married to similarly-aged spouses, with the possible exception of men married to older women," the study said.

Mansour said the study shed light on how and why people marry who they do.

The researchers also found that despite Hollywood portrayals to the contrary, there is nothing new about older women searching for younger men to marry.

"We really didn't find any evidence of a new cougar phenomenon," he said. "Although their share has slightly increased over time, cougars have been among us since the 1960s."

The real trend, he said, is that people of similar ages are increasingly marrying each other.

"The benefits from marriage might be changing. When you are close in age you can do things together," he said. "You can have children when both parties want to, retire at the same time and grow old together"

###

The University of Colorado Denver offers more than 130 degrees and programs in 13 schools and colleges and serves more than 28,000 students. The University is located on the Denver Campus and the Anschutz Medical Campus in Aurora, Colo. For more information, visit the online newsroom


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Study shows so-called cougars, sugar daddies more myth than reality [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 6-May-2013
[ | E-mail | Share Share ]

Contact: David Kelly
david.kelly@ucdenver.edu
303-315-6374
University of Colorado Denver

Those with older or younger spouses tend to have lower earnings, less education

DENVER (May 6, 2013) Despite the popular image of the rich older man or woman supporting an attractive younger spouse, a new study shows those married to younger or older mates have on average lower earnings, lower cognitive abilities, are less educated and less attractive than couples of similar ages.

"Hugh Hefner is an outlier," said Hani Mansour, Ph.D., an assistant professor of economics at the University of Colorado Denver who co-authored the study with Terra McKinnish, Ph.D., associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder. "Our results call into question the conventional wisdom regarding differently-aged couples."

The study, published online last week in the Review of Economics and Statistics, showed that those married to older or younger spouses scored negatively in key areas like education, occupational wages, appearance and cognitive skills.

The researchers did not give a range of how much older or younger a spouse had to be to see these effects. It simply found that the greater the age difference, the higher the negative indicators.

The economists examined U.S. Census Bureau data from 1960 through 2000 looking at age at first marriage, completed education, occupational wages, and earnings. They also used the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to measure cognitive skills and the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health) to gauge physical attractiveness.

Their findings largely reflect the different networks that lower or higher ability individuals belong to.

Those attending four-year colleges interact more with people of about the same age. After graduation, they and their peers often enter careers with upward mobility at a time when people tend to marry.

By contrast, those who attend community colleges or work in low-skilled jobs with little chance of advancement are more likely to interact with more widely diverse age groups, increasing their chances of marrying someone significantly younger or older, the study said.

"It really depends on who your social network is," Mansour said. "People with lower earning potential are in networks that are more age diverse."

The study also found that men married to younger or older spouses made less money than those married to women of a similar age.

In the 1980 Census, for example, men married to women eight or more years younger or older earned on average $3,495 less per year than men married to women no more than a year older or younger.

At the same time, women married to differently-aged spouses made more money than their mates but that was due to working more hours, not earning higher wages.

A battery of tests conducted in high school measured verbal, math and arithmetic reasoning skills. Those married to differently-aged spouses scored lower on the tests. Men with spouses at least eight years younger scored on average 8.4 points less than those who married women of a similar age. Women had less drastic drops in their scores.

Physical attractiveness was determined by interviewers conducting the Add Health survey. They rated their subjects on a scale of one to five with one being `very unattractive' and five being `very attractive.'

"Overall, the estimates indicate that individuals married to differently-aged spouses are less attractive than those married to similarly-aged spouses, with the possible exception of men married to older women," the study said.

Mansour said the study shed light on how and why people marry who they do.

The researchers also found that despite Hollywood portrayals to the contrary, there is nothing new about older women searching for younger men to marry.

"We really didn't find any evidence of a new cougar phenomenon," he said. "Although their share has slightly increased over time, cougars have been among us since the 1960s."

The real trend, he said, is that people of similar ages are increasingly marrying each other.

"The benefits from marriage might be changing. When you are close in age you can do things together," he said. "You can have children when both parties want to, retire at the same time and grow old together"

###

The University of Colorado Denver offers more than 130 degrees and programs in 13 schools and colleges and serves more than 28,000 students. The University is located on the Denver Campus and the Anschutz Medical Campus in Aurora, Colo. For more information, visit the online newsroom


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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.


Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-05/uocd-sss050613.php

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'Localized terror attack' foiled by FBI

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) ? The FBI believes authorities disrupted a terrorism attack that was being planned in a small western Minnesota city when they arrested a man after converging on a mobile home that contained Molotov cocktails, suspected pipe bombs and firearms, the agency said Monday.

Buford Rogers, 24, of Montevideo, was arrested Friday and charged with one count of being a felon in possession of a firearm. He remained in federal custody Monday and it was not clear if he had an attorney.

"The FBI believed there was a terror attack in its planning stages, and we believe there would have been a localized terror attack, and that's why law enforcement moved quickly to execute the search warrant on Friday to arrest Mr. Rogers," FBI spokesman Kyle Loven said Monday.

Rogers appeared in court Monday wearing a construction company T-shirt, jeans and work boots. He answered "yes sir" and "no sir" to questions from U.S. Magistrate Judge Tony Leung.

Leung ordered Rogers held pending a detention hearing Wednesday, citing "serious concerns" raised in the criminal complaint.

Loven declined to elaborate about the location of the alleged target, other than to say it was believed to be in Montevideo, a city of about 5,000 people about 130 miles west of Minneapolis. He also declined to say whether Rogers was believed to be acting alone or as part of a group, or if other arrests were expected.

"This is a very active investigation," he said. He added that at this point, authorities are "looking at this from a domestic terrorism standpoint."

Loven said the pending investigation prohibits him from getting into details about Rogers' possible political or religious views, but he said the FBI is confident in calling this a "terror" situation.

"We had information which indicated that Mr. Rogers was involved in a plot to conduct terror activities in and around the Montevideo area," he said.

In a news release Monday, the FBI said it believed "the lives of several local residents were potentially saved" by the search and arrest, and said "several guns and explosive devices were discovered." The agency said the alleged terror plot was discovered through analysis of intelligence gathered by local, state and federal authorities.

"Cooperation between the FBI and its federal, state, and local partners enabled law enforcement to prevent a potential tragedy in Montevideo," Christopher Warrener, the special agent in charge of the FBI office in Minneapolis, said in the release.

According to a federal affidavit obtained by The Associated Press on Friday, FBI agents from the domestic terrorism squad searched the property at the mobile home park in Montevideo and discovered the Molotov cocktails, suspected pipe bombs and firearms. The affidavit said Buford was there at the time of the search, and one firearm recovered from Buford's residence was a Romanian AKM assault rifle.

In an interview with authorities, Rogers admitted firing the weapon on two separate occasions at a gun range in Granite Falls, the affidavit said. Rogers has a past conviction for felony burglary and is not allowed to have a firearm.

Rogers is expected to make his initial appearance in federal court Monday.

Rogers' 2011 felony burglary conviction stems from an incident in Lac qui Parle County. He also has a 2009 misdemeanor conviction for dangerous handling of a weapon in Hennepin County, as well as other criminal violations, according to online court records.

Dustin Rathbun, who lives next door to Rogers' home, said he saw Friday's raid and arrest. He said he didn't know the family well because he didn't see them outside much.

Rathbun said the only thing that stood out was he and other neighbors noticed a few months ago the family was flying an upside-down flag from the side of their mobile home. He said the owners of the park asked them to take it down.

___

Follow Amy Forliti on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/amyforliti

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/fbi-minn-raid-disrupts-localized-terror-attack-163339217.html

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Monday, May 6, 2013

Samsung acquires MOVL to bolster its multi-screen TV efforts

Samsung acquires MOVL to bolster multiscreen TV apps

Samsung's desire for deep integration of TV services was painstakingly obvious when it unveiled the Galaxy S 4's WatchON feature. However, that may prove to be just the tip of the televisual iceberg: it's buying MOVL, the developer of Samsung's own SwipeIt media sharing as well as the MOVL Connect Platform and KontrolTV. We don't know exactly how the two sides will mesh, but MOVL expects to merge its connected TV savvy with the "scale and innovation" of its new overseer, according to a company statement at TechCrunch. The only safe prediction is that existing support for generic Google TVs and iOS will likely take a back seat.

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Comments

Source: TechCrunch

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/06/samsung-acquires-movl-to-bolster-its-multi-screen-tv-efforts/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=Feed_Classic&utm_campaign=Engadget

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What are Some of the Benefits of Home Schooling? | Reference and ...

With today?s political environment, ?a lot of? educators are ?not allowed? to ?teach? what ?children? need. ?alternately? , teachers ?teach? to the test and ?ignore? other ?necessary? areas of a ?child?s education, because??pay is tied to students performance on high stake tests. ?Public schools have ?chosen to get? away from the mission of directing their studentsto be ?self sufficient? members of society. ?Instead, they have a mission to get them graduated, with high, state testing scores, and accepted to a college. ?This ?seems? like a ?great? mission , except schools are not preparing students to ?make it? in college. ?They are getting ?students? into college and students are then dropping out because they are not ?prepared? for the rigor of post-secondary work. ?Many parents are ?considering? taking education into thier own hands and are ?considering? home schooling.

So what are the benefits of home schooling? ?Parents can make sure that their children are ?experiencing? what they need to be productive members of society. ?Not everyone needs to go to college. ??Guardians can assist their children in choosing? a path for their education and can ?assist? them to acheive it. ?Schools no longer have the resources to ?a student? ?plan his or future. ?Another benefit is that much of a teachers time is spent ?handling? discipline in the classroom. ?In a home school ?cituation? , it is possible to cover the same amount of ?content? in half of the time. ?Students may only have to spend 3 or 4 hours in school compared 6 hours in a regular school.

Also, many states are starting to allow students that live in ?the local? school district to participate in extra-curricular activities like sports, intermurals, etc., even if they attend a home school. ?This allows?students to ?have? social interaction of a public school while they?attend a home school that can provide the rigor and focus that ?children? need.

There are ?a lot of? online resources for home schooling ideas and curriculum. ?To get online help with math, you can go to ??online geometry??,??virtual math lab? or ,??virtual algebra?

Source: http://referenceandeducation.4ove.com/2013/05/05/what-are-some-of-the-benefits-of-home-schooling/

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Obama to Start 'Middle Class Jobs and Opportunity Tours' (ABC News)

Share With Friends: Share on FacebookTweet ThisPost to Google-BuzzSend on GmailPost to Linked-InSubscribe to This Feed | Rss To Twitter | Politics - Top Stories News, RSS and RSS Feed via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/303693694?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Watch Boeing's X-51A WaveRider Scramjet Blast Off to Mach 5.1

Boeing's X-51A WaveRider Scramjet has had its share of bad luck. While its first test flight in 2010 went fine, the two that followed ended with unsatisfactory plops. Now, the USAF has just completed the fourth and final test, and the result was a screaming 370 seconds of scramjet glory and literally hypersonic speeds.

According to Charlie Brink, X-51A program manager for the Air Force, the mission was "a full success." And though the Mach 5.1 , hypersonic speed isn't itself a record (that was reached in the WaveRider's first test) the scrammy's 260-mile, six-minute trip was the most successful?and longest?test of the engine. Moreover, it was huge improvement over those last two failures.

After its high-speed flight, the X-51A crashed into the Pacific Ocean?as intended?ending the series of flights; there's no more X-51As left, and no plan for what's coming after. Still, the trip was awesome and the footage is a joy to behold. Hopefully they'll find a way to strap a camera on the next model. [USAF via CNET]

Source: http://gizmodo.com/watch-boeings-x-51a-waverider-scramjet-blast-off-to-ma-490575939

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harryingram2: Online Shop Cloning For Swift Business Establishment

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Source: http://harryingram2.blogspot.com/2013/05/online-shop-cloning-for-swift-business.html

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Sunday, May 5, 2013

US orders new visa reviews for arriving students

(AP) ? The Homeland Security Department ordered border agents "effective immediately" to verify that every international student who arrives in the U.S. has a valid student visa, according to an internal memorandum obtained Friday by The Associated Press. The new procedure is the government's first security change directly related to the Boston bombings.

The order from a senior official at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, David J. Murphy, was circulated Thursday and came one day after the Obama administration acknowledged that a student from Kazakhstan accused of hiding evidence for one of the Boston bombing suspects was allowed to return to the U.S. in January without a valid student visa.

The student visa for Azamat Tazhayakov had been terminated when he arrived in New York on Jan. 20. But the border agent in the airport did not have access to the information in the Homeland Security Department's Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, called SEVIS.

Tazhayakov was a friend and classmate of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev's at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Tazhayakov left the U.S. in December and returned Jan. 20. But in early January, his student-visa status was terminated because he was academically dismissed from the university.

Tazhayakov and a second Kazakh student were arrested this week on federal charges of obstruction of justice. They were accused of helping to get rid of a backpack containing fireworks linked to Tsarnaev. A third student was also arrested and accused of lying to authorities.

A spokesman for the department, Peter Boogaard, said earlier this week that the government was working to fix the problem, which allowed Tazhayakov to be admitted into the country when he returned to the U.S.

Under existing procedures, border agents could verify a student's status in SEVIS only when the person was referred to a second officer for additional inspection or questioning. Tazhayakov was not sent to a second officer when he arrived, because, Boogaard said, there was no information to indicate Tazhayakov was a national security threat. Under the new procedures, all border agents were expected to be able to access SEVIS by next week.

The government for years has recognized as a problem the inability of border agents at primary inspection stations to directly review student-visa information. The Homeland Security Department was working before the bombings to resolve the problem, but the new memo outlined interim procedures until the situation was corrected.

Under the new procedures, border agents will verify a student's visa status before the person arrives in the U.S. using information provided in flight manifests. If that information is unavailable, border agents will check the visa status manually with the agency's national targeting data center.

It is unclear what impact the new procedure will have on wait times at airports and borders. Customs officials will be required to report any effect, including increased wait times, on a daily basis.

The Obama administration announced an internal review earlier this week of how U.S. intelligence agencies shared sensitive information before the bombings and whether the government could have prevented the attack. Republicans in Congress have promised oversight hearings, which begin Thursday.

Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, asked Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on Thursday for details from the student-visa applications of Tazhayakov and Dias Kadyrbayev, the Kazakhstan students implicated in helping Tsarnaev after the bombings, including information about how Tazhayakov re-entered the United States.

Lawmakers and others have long been concerned about terrorists exploiting the student visa system to travel to the United States. A 20-year-old college student from Saudi Arabia was arrested in Texas in 2011 on federal charges of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction. Authorities accused him of plotting to blow up dams, nuclear plants or the Dallas home of former President George W. Bush. He was later convicted and sentenced to life in prison.

___

Follow Alicia A. Caldwell on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/acaldwellap

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/89ae8247abe8493fae24405546e9a1aa/Article_2013-05-03-Boston%20Marathon-Missing%20Visa/id-d45c4a1e81dc478f91676e81fe8df956

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Saturday, May 4, 2013

Strong US jobs report triggers stock market rally

LONDON (AP) ? Stock markets rallied on Friday, with both the Dow and S&P hitting new highs, after an unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report indicated the world's largest economy is not slowing down, as some had feared.

The Labor Department said a net 165,000 jobs were created in April, above the market expectations for 140,000. The previous two months' weak figures, meanwhile, were revised up. That helped bring the unemployment rate down to 7.5 percent, the lowest in four years.

Paul Ashworth, the chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics, said the report "will go a long way towards soothing fears of another spring slowdown."

On Wall Street, the Dow was up 1.1 percent to 14,991.93, having earlier traded above the 15,000 mark for the first time. The broader S&P 500 was 1.2 percent higher at 1,616.89, also just off record highs.

In Europe, Germany's DAX rose 2 percent to 8,122.29, its highest ever closing price. Britain's FTSE 100 closed 0.9 percent higher at 6,521.46 while France's CAC-40 ended 1.4 percent higher at 3,912.95.

The U.S. jobs report helped offset news that the European Union had downgraded its economic forecasts. In its spring update, the EU said it expected the 17-country eurozone's economy to shrink 0.4 percent this year, 0.1 percentage points worse than its February prediction.

It expects markedly weaker growth in Germany, the region's biggest economy, and a contraction in France, the second-largest. The fact that the economic slowdown is affecting the larger economies could push the ECB to cut interest rates again, or provide some new measures of support to credit markets in coming months.

Earlier, in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.1 percent to close at 22,689.96. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.4 percent to 1,965.71 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was nearly unchanged at 5,129.50.

Mainland Chinese stocks posted sharp gains, but that was likely due to bargain-hunting after a sharp fall the day before. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 1.4 percent to 2,205.5 while the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 2 percent to 936.58.

Markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.

In commodity markets, the benchmark oil contract for June delivery was up $1.80 to $95.79 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $2.96, or 3.3 percent, on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain for crude since November.

In currencies, the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3110, recovering somewhat from sharp losses the day before, when the European Central Bank on Thursday cut interest rates. The dollar rose 1.2 percent against the Japanese yen, to 99.12 yen.

___

Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/strong-us-jobs-report-triggers-stock-market-rally-151926961.html

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NASA study projects warming-driven changes in global rainfall

NASA study projects warming-driven changes in global rainfall [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 3-May-2013
[ | E-mail | Share Share ]

Contact: Kathryn Hansen
kathryn.h.hansen@nasa.gov
301-286-1046
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

A NASA-led modeling study provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk for extreme rainfall and drought.

The study shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of rainfall types on Earth.

Analysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see increases in heavy precipitation because of warming resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels. Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with moderate rainfall could become drier.

The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming's impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged droughts in certain regions," said William Lau of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., and lead author of the study.

The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will increase globally by 1 percent. However, total global rainfall is not projected to change much because moderate rainfall will decrease globally by 1.4 percent.

Heavy rainfall is defined as months that receive an average of more than about 0.35 of an inch per day. Light rain is defined as months that receive an average of less than 0.01 of an inch per day. Moderate rainfall is defined as months that receive an average of between about 0.04 to 0.09 of an inch per day.

Areas projected to see the most significant increase in heavy rainfall are in the tropical zones around the equator, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions.

Some regions outside the tropics may have no rainfall at all. The models also projected for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with no rain will increase globally by 2.6 percent. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas most likely to be affected include the deserts and arid regions of the southwest United States, Mexico, North Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, and northwestern China. In the Southern Hemisphere, drought becomes more likely in South Africa, northwestern Australia, coastal Central America and northeastern Brazil.

"Large changes in moderate rainfall, as well as prolonged no-rain events, can have the most impact on society because they occur in regions where most people live," Lau said. "Ironically, the regions of heavier rainfall, except for the Asian monsoon, may have the smallest societal impact because they usually occur over the ocean."

Lau and colleagues based their analysis on the outputs of 14 climate models in simulations of 140-year periods. The simulations began with carbon dioxide concentrations at about 280 parts per million -- similar to pre-industrial levels and well below the current level of almost 400 parts per million -- and then increased by 1 percent per year. The rate of increase is consistent with a "business as usual" trajectory of the greenhouse gas as described by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Analyzing the model results, Lau and his co-authors calculated statistics on the rainfall responses for a 27-year control period at the beginning of the simulation, and also for 27-year periods around the time of doubling and tripling of carbon dioxide concentrations. They conclude the model predictions of how much rain will fall at any one location as the climate warms are not very reliable.

"But if we look at the entire spectrum of rainfall types we see all the models agree in a very fundamental way -- projecting more heavy rain, less moderate rain events, and prolonged droughts," Lau said.

###


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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.


NASA study projects warming-driven changes in global rainfall [ Back to EurekAlert! ] Public release date: 3-May-2013
[ | E-mail | Share Share ]

Contact: Kathryn Hansen
kathryn.h.hansen@nasa.gov
301-286-1046
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

A NASA-led modeling study provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk for extreme rainfall and drought.

The study shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of rainfall types on Earth.

Analysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see increases in heavy precipitation because of warming resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels. Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with moderate rainfall could become drier.

The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming's impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged droughts in certain regions," said William Lau of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., and lead author of the study.

The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will increase globally by 1 percent. However, total global rainfall is not projected to change much because moderate rainfall will decrease globally by 1.4 percent.

Heavy rainfall is defined as months that receive an average of more than about 0.35 of an inch per day. Light rain is defined as months that receive an average of less than 0.01 of an inch per day. Moderate rainfall is defined as months that receive an average of between about 0.04 to 0.09 of an inch per day.

Areas projected to see the most significant increase in heavy rainfall are in the tropical zones around the equator, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions.

Some regions outside the tropics may have no rainfall at all. The models also projected for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with no rain will increase globally by 2.6 percent. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas most likely to be affected include the deserts and arid regions of the southwest United States, Mexico, North Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, and northwestern China. In the Southern Hemisphere, drought becomes more likely in South Africa, northwestern Australia, coastal Central America and northeastern Brazil.

"Large changes in moderate rainfall, as well as prolonged no-rain events, can have the most impact on society because they occur in regions where most people live," Lau said. "Ironically, the regions of heavier rainfall, except for the Asian monsoon, may have the smallest societal impact because they usually occur over the ocean."

Lau and colleagues based their analysis on the outputs of 14 climate models in simulations of 140-year periods. The simulations began with carbon dioxide concentrations at about 280 parts per million -- similar to pre-industrial levels and well below the current level of almost 400 parts per million -- and then increased by 1 percent per year. The rate of increase is consistent with a "business as usual" trajectory of the greenhouse gas as described by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Analyzing the model results, Lau and his co-authors calculated statistics on the rainfall responses for a 27-year control period at the beginning of the simulation, and also for 27-year periods around the time of doubling and tripling of carbon dioxide concentrations. They conclude the model predictions of how much rain will fall at any one location as the climate warms are not very reliable.

"But if we look at the entire spectrum of rainfall types we see all the models agree in a very fundamental way -- projecting more heavy rain, less moderate rain events, and prolonged droughts," Lau said.

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Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-05/nsfc-nsp050313.php

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