Thursday, November 17, 2011

Mailbag: Crawford to Cubs? Not easy, but it makes sense

With Epstein in Windy City and club needing to make splash, dealing for outfielder would be smart

Image: Carl CrawfordAP

Carl Crawford, 30, has about $120 million and six years remaining on his current contract.

BASEBALL EXPERT MAILBAG

updated 7:56 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2011

Tony DeMarco

Baseball Expert Tony DeMarco has been covering the big leagues since 1987, and been casting Hall of Fame ballots for the last 12 years. He answers questions weekly here:

Q: Do you think that Jim Bowden's prediction about Carl Crawford being traded to the Cubs will come true?
? Kyle Rotondo, Peabody, Mass.

A: So many other things have to happen first in both organizations, starting with each naming a new manager. But I do see where Bowden is coming from on this one, and I can't rule it out.

New Cubs president Theo Epstein was a big force in the Red Sox's signing Crawford last winter. Next, there is a strong likelihood that Crawford, 30, will rebound from what for him was a bad and disappointing season in Boston, and return to All-Star-like form somewhere. He's too young and talented to believe anything else ? even if Boston might not be the right fit for him.

Third, the Cubs are in the midst of a franchise makeover, their payroll is in transition and with Epstein and his crew in charge, will be charting a new direction that could include adding a superstar offensive player. So if they don't sign an Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder in free agency, a deal for Crawford could be something they would look into down the road.

For the record, Crawford still has about $120 million and six years remaining on his contract.

Q: Do you think Neftali Feliz will be moved to the rotation? And if so, will Mike Adams finally get the chance to close, or will the Rangers look to free agency?
? Mike Ciriaco, Omaha, Neb.

A: The answer to those questions is tied at least in part to C.J. Wilson's free agency.

Don't count me among the Wilson-bashing element that's out there, especially in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. But how much will the Rangers be willing to pay a guy they didn't really want to start Game 7 of the World Series?

And given that the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels are leading the pack of a handful of teams interested in Wilson, chances are he'll be pitching elsewhere in 2012.

The ideal spot for Wilson would be as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Angels, where he would bring a very effective left-handed presence to an otherwise all-right-handed rotation led by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

That could lead to the Angels' dealing Ervin Santana for a much-needed bat. Or, knowing how much Mike Scioscia and new general manager (and former big-league reliever) Jerry Dipoto covet pitching, could set up the league's best starting foursome.

As for the Rangers' 2012 rotation, they can expect improvement from young lefties Derek Holland and Matt Harrison, and still have solid Colby Lewis and very talented Alexi Ogando. So it's not as if the cupboard will be bare without Wilson.

The Rangers also are expected to be a frontrunner for Japanese League star Yu Darvish if he decides to jump to MLB. Yet another possibility is trading for a staring pitcher such as John Danks, or signing either a starter or closer.

So the situation still is very fluid, and you can be sure the Rangers will examine every possibility. But Feliz in the rotation and Adams as the closer certainly is one of a handful of possibilities for 2012.

Q: Despite winning the World Series, the Cardinals' starting pitching in the playoffs was pretty weak once you got past Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. What do you think about the Cardinals' signing Mark Buehrle?
? Stephen Shoemaker, Tulsa, Okla.

A: Buehrle's interest in the Cardinals has been known for a few years, as he grew up and still lives in nearby St. Charles, Mo. But several other factors are in play here:

At 32, this will be Buehrle's last shot at a big free-agent contract, so that could work against his giving a "hometown discount" to the Cardinals. And the Cardinals' financial position at this point probably will preclude them from making the biggest offer to Buehrle, who will be coveted by a handful of teams.

What could change that is if due to some unexpected development, the Cardinals don't re-sign Albert Pujols. I'm operating under the assumption that Pujols isn't going anywhere, but if he does, that obviously would put a Plan B in motion for the Cardinals, which could include signing Buehrle.

Still, you also have to keep in mind that ace Adam Wainwright is expected to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery for the 2012 season, and the Cardinals have two top starting pitching prospects on the verge of the big leagues in Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez. So they may not feel the need to put a lot of money into Buehrle.


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