Christian Petersen/Getty Images If you haven't noticed, baseball contracts these days are getting a bit out of control. Players like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Matt Kemp are becoming absurdly rich for essentially being really good at playing a game.
Blasphemy, I know. I'm not complaining ? it doesn't affect me, and I love watching these guys play. And in today's market, they are the best, so they deserve to be the most richly rewarded.?
And with that being said, the horizon is nearing for some young players and veterans approaching free agency as far as the dollars and cents go. Today's bargain stars are sure to be tomorrow's Pujols, Fielder and Kemp.
This is our shot at predicting the next 20 monster contracts in baseball. Let's make it rain!
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Oh, man is this kid going to be rich. When you win the Cy Young at age 23, a mountain of cash is in your very near future. Lucky for the Dodgers, Kershaw is under team control for a little while longer.?
Surely, they will have to start looking to extend his contract in the next couple years, or they will lose him to the highest bidder. Kershaw established himself as the best pitcher in the National League last season, and his ceiling is ridiculously high.?
If he continues to get better, there's no telling how high the figures could get. But if I had to take a guess, I'll go with C.C. Sabathia-type numbers.?
Prediction: Six years, $145 million
2. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
As a disclaimer, this is all assuming Freeman doesn't have a big ol' stinky sophomore slump like teammate Jason Heyward. But if his rookie season is any indication, he's going to be the next coming of Fielder.?
Those are lofty standards to live up to, but he is also a big, left-handed first baseman and he also hits the ball a country mile. He's still way too young to be expecting a contract for another few years, but at some point, Freeman will sign a big one.?
I don't think he'll be reeling in the dough like Fielder just did, but it could be close. Owners love to pay for power, especially at the corner infield spots.
Prediction: Seven years, $126 million
3. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
These young guys the Braves keep cranking out are going to keep them relevant for years. And nobody was more important to their success in 2011 than Kimbrel. He led the National League with 46 saves last year and had a minuscule ERA and WHIP.
Kimbrel seems to thrive in the late-inning role, and shouldn't be going anywhere for a while. The market for closers isn't quite as rich as most positions, but he should still be getting paid in the upper echelon when the time comes.
One thing is for sure, the $419,000 Atlanta paid Kimbrel last season isn't going to hold when he keeps racking up big seasons.
Prediction: Four years, $50 million?
4. Mike Stanton, Miami Marlins
This guy is a beast. He is huge, and he swings hard. He's the modern-day Vladimir Guerrero with a little more control on his swing. I don't think Stanton will ever be a guy who hits for a hugely high average, but he's going to mash a lot of homers and a lot of RBI.
Not to mention, he can play a pretty nifty right field. Stanton is only 21, and just getting better. If he can cut his strikeouts down a bit and bring the average up, he'll be one of the most consistent young stars in the game.?
The Marlins might not have any more cash left to spend after this expensive offseason, but someone's going to lock up Stanton long-term, and they will be getting a damn good bat for doing so.
Prediction: Six years, $88 million
5. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
This poor guy. He's been one of baseball's best pitchers for a number of years now, but is constantly either under-supported by his offense or overshadowed by teammate Tim Lincecum. His numbers don't shine like they should yet, but when free agency hits, his wallet and stats will both expand.
You have to think Cain will get a little less than premiere pitchers like Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez. I assume those two guys will hover around $20 million for as long as they are dominant. Cain seems more like a candidate to be just under that figure.
Whether or not that's still too expensive for the Giants (who have to re-sign Lincecum in two years and?start considering an extension for young lefty Madison Bumgarner) remains to be seen.
Prediction: Six years, $110 million
6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Speak of the devil. In my opinion, it's debatable if Lincecum is actually a better pitcher than Cain. But Lincecum has the hardware and you can't really rule against a guy with such filthy stuff. The Giants' general manager, Brian Sabean, seems intent on keeping both Lincecum and Cain.
But if the Giants want to win it all again, they need to vastly improve the offense. I think it's more likely that one pitcher stays and the other bolts for greener pastures. My gut is telling me Lincecum is the goner, because he repeatedly refutes long-term contract talks with the Giants.
Hopefully he's built for the long run with that wacky windup of his, because if he stays healthy over the next couple seasons he's looking at a very large payday.
Prediction: Seven years, $150 million
7. Jemile Weeks, Oakland Athletics
If we've learned anything from watching Billy Beane run the A's, it's that he gets a stretch of years out of his best players for the cheapest rate possible, and then they leave for bigger markets and bigger paydays. Weeks is no different.
And if 2011 is any indication, the young second baseman will be looking at a fat check when the time comes. It's a small sample size, but Weeks showed an intriguing mix of speed, average and power for a young kid last season.
I don't think he'll be paid like a typical star is getting right now, but he should be looking at a five or six-year deal for around $12 million per year. Keep in mind, a deal like this wouldn't be done for at least a few years if he stays at or above what he did last season.
Prediction: Six years, $75 million
8. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
It's inevitable. The only way Strasburg isn't getting a ton of cash a few years from now is if he blows his arm out completely. He already got over the first hurdle, looking completely healed and downright brilliant in his return late last season from a torn elbow ligament.
He really is deserving of all the hype he gets. He's got top of the rotation stuff and will only get better as he continues to age and settle in as a pro. Chances are, he'll probably learn a lot about opposing hitters as well.?
With impeccable control and ferocious velocity, Strasburg should be getting a nice, big check from someone about five years down the road.
Prediction: Eight years, $160 million
9. Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
Or as I like to call him, Felix Hernandez, Jr. The young flamethrower is the newest member of the Yankees' suddenly impressive rotation and if his rookie season in 2011 was any glimpse into the future, the Yanks might have gotten a steal.
I'll tell you one thing ? if Pineda helps bring another title to the Bronx, the ownership there will be quick to richly reward him. Again, I don't think Pineda is at the level of guys like Hernandez, nor will he be in a few years.?
But, I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls in over $100 million for a long-term deal when he hits free agency.
Prediction: Eight years, $130 million
10. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are getting an absolute bargain on Upton right now. He was the offensive catalyst to a surprise N.L. West title last year and was a strong MVP candidate down to the last couple weeks of the season.
He hits for power, he hits for average, plays good defense and is incredibly clutch. You can't ask for much more out of a young star. I'm expecting Upton to be reeling in a lot more dough when his current contract is up.
Six years for $51 million is nothing to scoff at, but in today's market, Upton is worth at least $5 million more per season. That's more like the contract I think he'll receive when the time comes.
Prediction: Five years, $81 million
11. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
I'm going out on a very long limb here. Rizzo has been a top prospect for a while and got a quick shot in San Diego last year. I'm not saying he's going to save the Cubbies single-handedly, but you have to love that Theo Epstein jumped at the chance to acquire him.
Rizzo's got a smooth left-handed swing, and reminds me a lot of Adrian Gonzalez. I don't expect him to be as good as A-Gon, but he's got the talent to put down some big numbers and bring in the dollar signs that go with it.
While it could potentially take at least four or five seasons to make enough of a splash to get the big bucks, I'm banking on him coming through. I believe he'll be better than Carlos Pena, who seems to be a magnet for one-year $10 million deals, so that's my measuring stick.
Prediction: Six years, $74 million
12. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
I know, I know. He signed a three-year extension for $38 million already. But the final year of that extension is worth $17 million. And even that is a little low for a guy who won the 2010 MVP and only seems to be turning into a more complete player every year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Votto get a longer deal from someone in 2014 for right around that figure. I'll give him a shot at eight years for $17 or $18 million a year, assuming he stays healthy and continues to produce at this high of a clip.
In Votto's worst season with Cincy, he hit .297 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI. His worst?season. He's not going to reach Albert Pujols numbers, but Votto's going to be well paid.?
Prediction: Eight years, $150 million
13. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
I hope the Rays will be able to afford Longoria in 2015 when he becomes a free agent, because he's become the face of the franchise over the last few years. If it's not Tampa, somebody's going to jump at the chance to get one of the best players in baseball right when he hits his prime.
This is really unbelievable to me, but under Longoria's current contract, he's making less than $3 million per season to drop bombs and drive in runs like nobody's business. The best player on a regularly contending team surely deserves more than that.
I'm assuming when Longoria hits the market, he'll make something much heftier than he's getting now. He has had some health problems here and there, so that may be an issue. But as long as no ailments linger, he'll be swimming in cash.
Prediction: Six years, $96 million
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians
Cabrera has been a favorite of mine since he started making a name for himself in Cleveland a couple seasons ago. In 2011, he made a significant jump and really put his name into the mix for the top tier of shortstops right now.
Last season, Cabrera exploded to hit .273 with 25 homers and 92 RBI, while stealing 17 bases. He really displayed what type of player he's going to be in his prime, as he's only 26 right now. Cabrera was a major reason the Indians were in the thick of the playoff race deep into last season.
When he's out from under team control in 2014, he's sure to have many suitors on the market. With players like Troy Tulowitzki becoming the norm at shortstop, everyone's going to be hungry for his services.
Prediction: Six years, $88 million
15. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
Well, we may have another slugging lefty first baseman on our hands. Hosmer is the real deal for Kansas City, who seems to be just loading the lineup card with young, talented hitters. The latest batch came up last year and nearly made the Royals relevant again in the second half.
Hosmer led the troops, mashing his way to a third-place finish in the A.L. Rookie of the Year voting. He's definitely got a bright future ahead of him, but he'll have to wait until he's all grown up to get the payday.?
Unless of course the Royals can extend him before that. And considering the numbers he put up at the ripe age of 21, they better jump on it quick. I truly think Hosmer is the next big star in the MLB.
Prediction: Eight years, $175 million
16. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
It's great that the Royals are building their way back up with young talent, but boy is it ever going to cost them. Butler has been a very quite, consistent star in K.C. for a few seasons now, and at age 25 he's not even near his prime yet.
Right now, he's under contract at around $7-8 million per season through 2014. If he continues to average?.297/17/87 (though I assume the numbers will balloon even more as he gets older), he's going to at least get into double-figure earnings per year.
If the Royals can lock up Butler for $11-12 million per season sooner rather than later, they could be getting a discount. He's got the bat to put up some huge numbers over the next few seasons, which could potentially inflate his value to $15 million per year.
Prediction: Five years, $70 million
17. Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Valverde is making decent money as closers go; just over $7 million per season. But Valverde is no ordinary closer. He was by far the most dominant closer of 2011, racking up 49 saves in 49 chances during the regular season.?
If you include the end of his 2010 season, Valverde is on a saves streak that has a legitimate chance of passing Eric Gagne's record of 84 straight converted saves. It's still a long shot, but it's possible. Especially if he pitches like he did last season in 2012.
Valverde is 33 already, but Heath Bell got a fat three-year deal this offseason, and that guy is basically a grandfather. Thus I expect Valverde to get his money when he becomes a free agent next season. People will pay for perfection, especially at the end of games.
Prediction: Four years, $52 million
18. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
Cruz is making chump change right now at just over $3 million a season from the Rangers. Sure, his health has been a problem and he's on the wrong side of the 30, but the numbers he has put up in Arlington over the last three seasons have been sensational.
Plus, he has the intangibles that teams will gladly add a couple billfolds for. Everyone knows Cruz has the clutch factor and the intensity factor, but how about 14 career postseason home runs in just 2011? That's insane, and something that's invaluable to a rich, contending team.
When Cruz hits the market in 2014, I'm expecting all the big names like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels to jump at the chance to sign him to a big contract.?
Prediction: Six years, $102 million
19. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
My trio of Rangers continues with the dependable second baseman, Kinsler. He will be turning 30 during the 2012 season, but you won't find a more dynamic top-of-the-order bat than this guy. In six seasons with the Rangers, he's averaged .275/26/83 and 29 steals.?
That means he legitimately pushes the 30/30 threshold every single season. But right now, he's nearing the end of a contract that pays him around $4.5 million a season. You show me one guy in the majors who can be a 30/30 threat and drive in that many runs every year who's making such a paltry sum.
Kinsler is definitely in line for a big raise when the current contract ends after this season. I'm thinking he'll take a slight discount to stay in Texas (don't ask why, it's just a gut feeling), but it's still not going to be cheap.
Prediction: Five years, $68 million
20. Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers
Mike Napoli is gonna get his. Forget the first few years of his career when he was teetering on "bust status." Forget some of the ugly numbers that came with that status. Napoli found a new home in Texas in 2011 and he went to work.
He raised his average all the way to .320 and improved an already hefty power stroke. He played surprisingly good defense, and displayed some of the same intangibles that Nelson Cruz featured during their run to the World Series.
Speaking of the Series, Napoli only hit .350 with two jacks and 10 RBI in those seven games. If the Rangers had hung on to win, he would have most likely been the MVP. You don't garner that kind of mention without getting some moo-la to go with it.
Prediction: Four years, $58 million
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